Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 11.953123 13.667279 15.525378 17.687216 20.131388 22.807158 25.956568
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.384534 11.668638 14.341966 17.694291 21.777889 26.582658 32.656536
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.851991 10.304050 13.318482 17.283126 22.345542 28.577472 36.814008
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.868708 9.453273 12.770994 17.320584 23.373243 31.121905 41.763965
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.209580 8.904631 12.495314 17.598582 24.629668 33.935430 47.138009
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.621704 8.371170 12.161133 17.726135 25.640806 36.435819 52.206147
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.046706 7.783846 11.678205 17.572064 26.204108 38.308147 56.472373
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.648773 7.406810 11.447126 17.734185 27.192942 40.795722 61.714489
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.412198 7.243890 11.505168 18.307507 28.796498 44.233010 68.506431
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.020058 6.798927 11.093271 18.122956 29.227708 45.943956 72.808019
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.505536 6.108593 10.240030 17.175599 28.399450 45.679656 74.057214
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.326592 5.951874 10.217788 17.539574 29.642064 48.645609 80.448022
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.152716 5.794030 10.189553 17.904693 30.932601 51.798466 87.385469
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.893314 5.464670 9.848882 17.721194 31.305075 53.501076 92.086739
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.634443 5.110829 9.434520 17.372365 31.360567 54.665469 95.935554
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.459796 4.894210 9.240720 17.388630 32.033058 56.878495 101.643368
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.341435 4.771539 9.202970 17.675005 33.187096 59.957027 108.976147
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.210042 4.611727 9.083697 17.800577 34.054906 62.579071 115.645275
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.052951 4.387196 8.825611 17.646735 34.398235 64.289622 120.784475
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.949013 4.259557 8.740286 17.809219 35.327883 67.079402 127.980190
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.901234 4.242582 8.866698 18.384932 37.063685 71.407769 138.179988
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.770985 4.041525 8.614637 18.199610 37.329447 73.047101 143.501081
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.571496 3.674531 8.001190 17.248472 36.043161 71.719496 143.193330